Walk into any coffee shop where investors congregate and you’ll hear whispers of concern. The market feels expensive. Stretched. Maybe even dangerous. It’s the kind of conversation that makes you wonder if we’ve been here before—and of course, we have. Twice, actually, in ways that echo loudly across the decades.

Today’s S&P 500 trades at a trailing P/E ratio of roughly 31, a number that would make your grandfather’s stockbroker choke on his lunch. The P/E10 ratio—which smooths earnings over a decade to avoid distortions—sits at 38.6, marking it 119% above its historic average. Put another way, investors are paying nearly twice what they usually would for each dollar of corporate earnings. This isn’t just expensive. It’s rarified air.

The question hanging over the market is simple but loaded: Have we been here before? The answer reveals a story more nuanced than most investors realize.