New Tariffs: Domestic Funds to Navigate Trade Risk

There are four separate tariff programs running at the same time as of late July 2026, which is part of why the picture feels hard to pin down. Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10% to 12.5% now cover more than 60 economies, in effect since July 24 when they replaced an expiring 10% global tariff under Section 122. Layered on top of that are Section 232 product tariffs: 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper, 25% on semiconductors, and 15% on polysilicon as of an August 6 ruling. Canada also faces a separate 50% tariff on select agriculture, dairy, furniture, and alcohol products starting August 19. Each program has its own legal basis and its own list of exemptions, so the effective rate a given company pays depends heavily on what it imports and from where.

It depends who you ask, and the honest answer is that the data supports more than one story. On one side, federal announcements now add up to more than $200 billion in new US manufacturing commitments, including GlobalFoundries' $16 billion chip investment, Stellantis' $13 billion in US plants, and Johnson & Johnson's $55 billion buildout. Manufacturing construction spending is also up since the tariffs began. On the other side, a recent manufacturer survey found that 64% have no plans to move production to the US specifically because of tariffs, mainly because it's often still cheaper to stay offshore or shift to a different, less-tariffed country instead. Where reshoring is happening, it tends to lean heavily on automation rather than adding large numbers of factory jobs, which is worth keeping in mind when reading headlines about a manufacturing 'boom.'

Economists are genuinely split on this one, more than is typical. The National Association for Business Economics puts 2026 US growth at 1.7%, and roughly two-thirds of the economists it surveys think tariffs are shaving up to half a percentage point off that figure. The OECD lands in a similar place, forecasting 1.5% growth. Goldman Sachs sees it differently, forecasting 2.6% to 2.8% growth on the view that tax cuts and easier financial conditions more than offset whatever drag the tariffs create. Both sides agree tariffs are a real input into the growth outlook; they simply disagree on whether other forces are big enough to cancel it out. That's likely to become clearer as inflation and hiring data for the rest of 2026 come in.

Domestically-focused small and mid-cap funds tend to hold up best if tariffs stay broad, since companies with mostly US revenue and fewer imported inputs feel less direct pressure. Semiconductor and industrial ETFs tied to reshoring capital spending sit in a similar spot if that trend keeps building. On the other side, emerging-market funds, import-heavy retail, and developed international markets carry more exposure if global trade and growth slow down instead, since those areas depend more directly on cross-border flows holding up. Low-volatility equity, defensive staples, cash, and gold are the more neutral options if you'd rather hedge the uncertainty than take a side on how it plays out.