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Portfolio Scenario

Fed Delivers First Rate Hike Since 2023 Under Chair Warsh
Name
NAV
Net Assets
1Y
3Y
Exp Ratio
Invesco KBW Bank ETF
KBWB · ETF
$84.34+0.93%
$6.77 B
+15.5%
+33.6%
0.35%
State Street® SPDR® S&P® Bank ETF
KBE · ETF
$62.38+0.97%
$1.48 B
+19.1%
+25.2%
0.35%
State Street® SPDR® S&P® Regional Banking ETF
KRE · ETF
$67.74+0.89%
$4.74 B
+22.6%
+24.4%
0.35%
Vanguard Financials Index Fund
VFH · ETF
$125.78+0.62%
$14.77 B
+9.7%
+21.7%
0.09%
State Street® Financial Select Sector SPDR® ETF
XLF · ETF
$51.29+0.59%
$51.35 B
+10.0%
+21.3%
0.08%

ETFs Positioned For The Fed's Rate Hike

Banks & Financials Benefiting From Higher Rates Growth Plays If The Fed Pauses From Here
Name NAV Net Assets 1Y 3Y Exp Ratio
Invesco KBW Bank ETF
KBWB · ETF
$84.34+0.93%
$6.77 B
+15.5%
+33.6%
0.35%
State Street® SPDR® S&P® Bank ETF
KBE · ETF
$62.38+0.97%
$1.48 B
+19.1%
+25.2%
0.35%
State Street® SPDR® S&P® Regional Banking ETF
KRE · ETF
$67.74+0.89%
$4.74 B
+22.6%
+24.4%
0.35%
Vanguard Financials Index Fund
VFH · ETF
$125.78+0.62%
$14.77 B
+9.7%
+21.7%
0.09%
State Street® Financial Select Sector SPDR® ETF
XLF · ETF
$51.29+0.59%
$51.35 B
+10.0%
+21.3%
0.08%

Funds To Watch If The Fed Hikes Again

Exposed If The Fed Delivers More Hikes Hedges For Rate Path Uncertainty
Name NAV Net Assets 1Y 3Y Exp Ratio
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF
LQD · ETF
$108.55-0.06%
$32.04 B
-1.0%
+5.5%
0.14%
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund
VGLT · ETF
$54.34+0.11%
$15.13 B
-3.3%
+3.0%
0.03%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
TLT · ETF
$84.92+0.14%
$47.05 B
-4.2%
+1.9%
0.15%
Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund
VNQ · ETF
$95.32-0.59%
$73.11 B
+10.1%
+12.9%
0.13%
State Street® Utilities Select Sector SPDR® ETF
XLU · ETF
$44.90+0.51%
$23.11 B
-1.1%
+16.3%
0.08%

Fed Chair Warsh & September Rate Hike FAQ

  • Did the Fed actually raise interest rates?

    Yes. On September 16, 2026, the FOMC voted unanimously, 12-0, to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. It's the Fed's first rate hike since July 2023, ending a two-year run of holds and cuts.

  • Why did the Fed hike now, after inflation had been cooling?

    Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled the shift at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28, saying summer inflation readings were better than expected but didn't yet show underlying trends improving enough to hold off. That single speech moved market-implied hike odds from under 50% to over 90% within about three weeks, and a Reuters poll found 85% of economists expected a hike once August inflation data came in.

  • Will the Fed raise rates again before the end of 2026?

    It's the more likely path based on the Fed's own signals, though not a certainty. The updated dot plot shows 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year: 12 see the year ending around 4.1%, and 4 see room for two more moves to roughly 4.4%. Only 2 officials think the Fed is done for the year. FOMC dot plots are a snapshot of current thinking, not a firm commitment, so incoming inflation and jobs data between now and December will matter.

  • How did markets react to the hike?

    More calmly than after the more surprising July decision, since September's move was almost fully priced in by the time it happened. The S&P 500 rose modestly on the announcement, while Treasury yields, which had already climbed roughly a quarter point since the Jackson Hole speech, continued to reflect the higher-for-longer path the dot plot now implies.

  • Which ETFs are most exposed either way from here?

    Financials tend to benefit from a steeper yield curve and the higher policy rate now actually in place. Long-duration Treasuries, REITs, utilities, and rate-sensitive credit carry the most risk if the Fed follows through on the additional hike, or hikes, the dot plot points to. Low-volatility equity, TIPS, and cash remain reasonable ways to hedge the uncertainty over how many more moves are still ahead, without betting on a specific outcome.