U.S. equities closed this week at fresh highs, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new records as heavyweight technology constituents Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple boosted overall performance.

Investor sentiment was shaped by a complex mix of data and policy signals: the ADP report logged an unexpected 33,000-job decline in private-sector payrolls, the first contraction in more than two years, while Congressional passage of a large tax-and-spending package intensified debate over prospective government budget deficits and inflation. Progress in U.S. trade talks with Vietnam and the European Union, together with hopes that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates as early as its September meeting, helped offset concerns surrounding the approaching July 9 tariff deadline.

Next week will be focussed on trade policy, labour-market updates, and monetary-policy signals. The July 9 tariff deadline on goods from the European Union and Japan is expected to dominate headlines, while the release of the Federal Reserve’s May FOMC minutes, the ADP June employment report, weekly jobless-claims data, and Friday’s non-farm payrolls will be scrutinised for confirmation of a potential economic slowdown. A weaker labour print would reinforce the probability, indicated by the FedWatch tool, of a July rate cut, likely influencing bond yields and equity market momentum. Geopolitical risk from the Israel–Iran standoff and possible oil-route disruptions remains an additional variable that could sway market sentiment.

Given this economic backdrop, let us see how this impacts the performance of various investment strategies.